Doctors: NAHB: Single-family home starts rose 4% in 2018, trending higher for 2019

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October 14, 2019


MARKET RECAP

Doctors: NAHB: Single-family home starts rose 4% in 2018

Analysis from the National Association of Home Builders shows that were 881,076 new single-family houses units started in 2018, a 4% increase over 2017.

The report shows that last year saw twice as many units started as they were in 2011, but last year was still 49% less than the peak of 2007, when there were 1,731,171 units started.

In 2018, in the Pacific Division, there were 98,760 new single-family units started, while in the East North Central Division, there were 78,858. The Pacific Division accounted for 11% of the total new single-family housing starts, and the East North Central Division accounted for 9%.

East South Central, West North Central, West North Central, Middle Atlantic and New England accounted for the remaining 18% of total new single-family housing starts.

Compared to 2017, the New England Division and the Mountain Division had a noticeable acceleration in growth in 2018.

Even though New England Division had the smallest amount of growth with 25,797 starts, the New England Division also grew by 13% in 2018, after a 5% growth rate in 2017.

Six of the nine divisions saw a noticeable deceleration in growth in 2018, including the West North Central Division, which saw a 14% decline in 2018, the largest out of those divisions. Conversely, the West Central South Division saw an increase of 8% in 2018, the same amount of increase it saw in 2017.

Source: HousingWire | Julia Falcon

Looking Ahead: Upcoming Key Market Dates

Wednesday, October 16, 2019 Home Builders Index
Thursday, October 17, 2019 Housing Starts
Thursday, October 17, 2019 Building Permit
Friday, October 18, 2019 Leading Economic Indicators

Mortgage Rates Back in Line with Recent Lows

Mortgage rates were slightly lower despite some volatility in the underlying bond market. Rates have generally been moving lower recently, but the trend of improvement looked like it might have been running into some resistance. While today’s drop isn’t big enough to suggest complacency, it does make a case for slightly less defensiveness in the short term.

In the bigger picture, however, it’s good to keep in mind that rates are the lowest they’ve been in almost a month. Early September was still a bit better, but those were the lowest rates in more than 3 years.

Volatility remains a risk as every update regarding a potential trade deal seems to have an easy time pushing the bond market around. When bonds improve or deteriorate enough during any given day, lenders can issue mid-day changes to mortgage rate quotes. It’s a good idea for consumers to have a gameplan about locking vs floating with their mortgage professional of choice.

Bonds limped through the day near unchanged, amid Fed rhetoric and below forecast Producer Price Index data. US/China tariff talks have the potential to hurt rates

Source: Mortgage News Daily | Matthew Graham